Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature

Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations

Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##    denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                   Rovigo         369 13.76        20.20       1.57
## 2                 Siracusa         197  4.98         7.65       0.49
## 3                  Belluno         967  1.96         6.97       4.76
## 4                  Potenza         173  1.79         2.98       0.47
## 5                 Cagliari         226  1.52         3.67       0.52
## 6                  Catania         851  1.39         5.32       0.77
## 7                  Cremona        5641  1.31         2.73      15.72
## 8              Alessandria        2899  1.23         2.98       6.88
## 9                  Viterbo         355  1.15         1.72       1.12
## 10                 Messina         513  1.05         3.22       0.82
## 11                  Ragusa          70  0.97         1.45       0.22
## 12                    Asti        1212  0.83         6.13       5.65
## 13                  Matera         177  0.76         1.72       0.89
## 14                 Gorizia         143  0.66         3.62       1.03
## 15                  Napoli        2227  0.61         2.11       0.72
## 16   Barletta-Andria-Trani         338  0.60         0.90       0.87
## 17                 Pescara        1190  0.54         4.11       3.73
## 18                  Torino       10610  0.52         3.23       4.70
## 19                  Milano       16520  0.49         2.53       5.08
## 20                  Latina         451  0.44         1.58       0.78
## 21                 Treviso        2351  0.38         1.12       2.65
## 22                  Arezzo         580  0.38         2.29       1.69
## 23                Piacenza        3460  0.37         1.97      12.05
## 24                  Foggia         896  0.31         3.23       1.44
## 25                 Ferrara         805  0.31         2.29       2.33
## 26                   Terni         331  0.30         0.91       1.47
## 27                  Varese        2251  0.26         2.50       2.53
## 28                 Caserta         403  0.25         0.75       0.44
## 29                  Ancona        1760  0.20         1.32       3.73
## 30                  Verona        4070  0.19         1.80       4.39
## 31                   Pavia        3705  0.19         1.76       6.79
## 32                Grosseto         386  0.17         0.78       1.74
## 33                Macerata         932  0.14         1.08       2.97
## 34                  Novara        2028  0.13         1.60       5.50
## 35                 Firenze        2704  0.12         1.92       2.67
## 36                   Udine         921  0.11         0.66       1.74
## 37                 Salerno         633  0.08         1.77       0.58
## 38                  Biella         808  0.06         2.67       4.60
## 39                  Modena        3449  0.04         1.11       4.89

Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##           denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                       Catanzaro         197  0.00         0.00       0.55
## 2                         Crotone         117  0.00         0.00       0.67
## 3                   Ascoli Piceno         271  0.00         0.00       1.31
## 4                    Sud Sardegna          86  0.00         0.00       0.25
## 5                       Agrigento         132  0.00         0.00       0.30
## 6                   Caltanissetta         138  0.00         0.00       0.53
## 7                         Trapani         135  0.00         0.00       0.31
## 8                        Avellino         428  0.00         0.23       1.02
## 9            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         945 -0.01         0.85       5.97
## 10                          Siena         411 -0.01         0.98       1.54
## 11                        Pistoia         575 -0.02         1.23       1.97
## 12                          Cuneo        2125 -0.03         2.41       3.62
## 13                        Bergamo       10788 -0.03         0.47       9.68
## 14                         Padova        3721 -0.04         0.76       3.97
## 15                           Roma        4189 -0.04         1.35       0.96
## 16                           Lodi        2751 -0.05         0.40      11.95
## 17                        Perugia         977 -0.07         0.10       1.49
## 18          Monza e della Brianza        4211 -0.08         1.30       4.82
## 19                          Rieti         281 -0.12         0.00       1.81
## 20                        Mantova        2933 -0.12         0.69       7.11
## 21 Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1093 -0.16         0.46       8.70
## 22                      Pordenone         599 -0.17         0.50       1.92
## 23                Pesaro e Urbino        2347 -0.18         0.60       6.54
## 24                          Fermo         395 -0.19         1.02       2.27
## 25                         Genova        3855 -0.23         1.66       4.58
## 26                        Ravenna         937 -0.25         0.32       2.41
## 27                        Taranto         244 -0.28         0.41       0.42
## 28                        Brescia       12078 -0.28         0.62       9.54
## 29                       L'Aquila         238 -0.29         0.42       0.80
## 30                      Frosinone         533 -0.29         1.52       1.09
## 31                        Palermo         422 -0.33         0.48       0.34
## 32                       Vercelli         989 -0.35         0.51       5.79
## 33                        Sassari         798 -0.38         0.00       1.62
## 34                        Sondrio         966 -0.40         0.63       5.33
## 35                          Lecco        2093 -0.40         0.63       6.20
## 36                           Como        2592 -0.40         1.65       4.33
## 37                   Forlì-Cesena        1446 -0.41         0.77       3.66
## 38             Reggio di Calabria         243 -0.41         0.00       0.44
## 39                        Trieste        1125 -0.42         0.27       4.80
## 40                  Vibo Valentia          71 -0.47         0.00       0.44
## 41                         Teramo         626 -0.48         0.00       2.03
## 42                        Cosenza         417 -0.49         2.21       0.59
## 43                        Venezia        2191 -0.52         0.64       2.57
## 44                        Bologna        3865 -0.53         1.13       3.81
## 45                         Rimini        1852 -0.54         0.33       5.46
## 46                Bolzano / Bozen        2410 -0.54         0.67       4.54
## 47                      Benevento         170 -0.60         0.00       0.61
## 48                        Livorno         492 -0.62         0.20       1.47
## 49                  Massa-Carrara         956 -0.62         0.74       4.91
## 50                           Bari        1160 -0.64         1.93       0.93
## 51                      La Spezia         788 -0.66         1.42       3.59
## 52                        Isernia          51 -0.66         0.00       0.60
## 53                          Lecce         452 -0.67         0.00       0.57
## 54                           Pisa         811 -0.70         0.87       1.94
## 55             Reggio nell'Emilia        4369 -0.80         0.39       8.21
## 56                        Vicenza        2390 -0.88         0.46       2.77
## 57                          Parma        2909 -0.91         0.76       6.44
## 58                          Prato         473 -0.94         0.21       1.84
## 59                         Trento        3614 -1.08         0.67       6.68
## 60                           Enna         377 -1.08         0.00       2.29
## 61                          Lucca        1215 -1.25         0.16       3.13
## 62                     Campobasso         213 -1.31         0.47       0.96
## 63                         Chieti         613 -1.54         1.16       1.59
## 64                        Imperia        1156 -1.55         0.00       5.41
## 65                          Nuoro          74 -1.87         0.00       0.35
## 66                       Brindisi         505 -2.31         1.00       1.29
## 67                         Savona         960 -3.29         2.45       3.48
## 68                       Oristano          52 -8.24         0.00       0.33

Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100

Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.

##         denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
##                         Cremona        5641           15.72   1
##                        Piacenza        3460           12.05   2
##                            Lodi        2751           11.95   3
##                         Bergamo       10788            9.68   4
##                         Brescia       12078            9.54   5
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1093            8.70   6
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4369            8.21   7
##                         Mantova        2933            7.11   8
##                     Alessandria        2899            6.88   9
##                           Pavia        3705            6.79  10
##                          Trento        3614            6.68  11
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2347            6.54  12
##                           Parma        2909            6.44  13
##                           Lecco        2093            6.20  14
##            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         945            5.97  15
##                        Vercelli         989            5.79  16
##                            Asti        1212            5.65  17
##                          Novara        2028            5.50  18
##                          Rimini        1852            5.46  19
##                         Imperia        1156            5.41  20
##                         Sondrio         966            5.33  21
##                          Milano       16520            5.08  22
##                   Massa-Carrara         956            4.91  23
##                          Modena        3449            4.89  24
##           Monza e della Brianza        4211            4.82  25
##                         Trieste        1125            4.80  26
##                         Belluno         967            4.76  27
##                          Torino       10610            4.70  28
##                          Biella         808            4.60  29
##                          Genova        3855            4.58  30
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2410            4.54  31
##                          Verona        4070            4.39  32
##                            Como        2592            4.33  33
##                          Padova        3721            3.97  34
##                         Bologna        3865            3.81  35
##                          Ancona        1760            3.73  36
##                         Pescara        1190            3.73  37
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1446            3.66  38
##                           Cuneo        2125            3.62  39
##                       La Spezia         788            3.59  40
##                          Savona         960            3.48  41
##                           Lucca        1215            3.13  42
##                        Macerata         932            2.97  43
##                         Vicenza        2390            2.77  44
##                         Firenze        2704            2.67  45
##                         Treviso        2351            2.65  46
##                         Venezia        2191            2.57  47
##                          Varese        2251            2.53  48
##                         Ravenna         937            2.41  49
##                         Ferrara         805            2.33  50
##                            Enna         377            2.29  51
##                           Fermo         395            2.27  52
##                          Teramo         626            2.03  53
##                         Pistoia         575            1.97  54
##                            Pisa         811            1.94  55
##                       Pordenone         599            1.92  56
##                           Prato         473            1.84  57
##                           Rieti         281            1.81  58
##                           Udine         921            1.74  59
##                        Grosseto         386            1.74  60
##                          Arezzo         580            1.69  61
##                         Sassari         798            1.62  62
##                          Chieti         613            1.59  63
##                          Rovigo         369            1.57  64
##                           Siena         411            1.54  65
##                         Perugia         977            1.49  66
##                         Livorno         492            1.47  67
##                           Terni         331            1.47  68
##                          Foggia         896            1.44  69
##                   Ascoli Piceno         271            1.31  70
##                        Brindisi         505            1.29  71
##                         Viterbo         355            1.12  72
##                       Frosinone         533            1.09  73
##                         Gorizia         143            1.03  74
##                        Avellino         428            1.02  75
##                            Roma        4189            0.96  76
##                      Campobasso         213            0.96  77
##                            Bari        1160            0.93  78
##                          Matera         177            0.89  79
##           Barletta-Andria-Trani         338            0.87  80
##                         Messina         513            0.82  81
##                        L'Aquila         238            0.80  82
##                          Latina         451            0.78  83
##                         Catania         851            0.77  84
##                          Napoli        2227            0.72  85
##                         Crotone         117            0.67  86
##                       Benevento         170            0.61  87
##                         Isernia          51            0.60  88
##                         Cosenza         417            0.59  89
##                         Salerno         633            0.58  90
##                           Lecce         452            0.57  91
##                       Catanzaro         197            0.55  92
##                   Caltanissetta         138            0.53  93
##                        Cagliari         226            0.52  94
##                        Siracusa         197            0.49  95
##                         Potenza         173            0.47  96
##                   Vibo Valentia          71            0.44  97
##              Reggio di Calabria         243            0.44  98
##                         Caserta         403            0.44  99
##                         Taranto         244            0.42 100
##                           Nuoro          74            0.35 101
##                         Palermo         422            0.34 102
##                        Oristano          52            0.33 103
##                         Trapani         135            0.31 104
##                       Agrigento         132            0.30 105
##                    Sud Sardegna          86            0.25 106
##                          Ragusa          70            0.22 107
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.2181  0.8425  1.9660  3.0879  4.7302 15.7151

Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Chieti         613       1.5897798         1.16           2.69
##  L'Aquila         238       0.7959041         0.42           0.71
##   Pescara        1190       3.7314720         4.11           3.57
##    Teramo         626       2.0321244         0.00           0.48

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Matera         177       0.8943504         1.72           0.96
##   Potenza         173       0.4740246         2.98           1.18

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Catanzaro         197       0.5497940         0.00           0.00
##             Cosenza         417       0.5908583         2.21           2.70
##             Crotone         117       0.6686478         0.00           0.00
##  Reggio di Calabria         243       0.4434234         0.00           0.41
##       Vibo Valentia          71       0.4435476         0.00           0.47

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Avellino         428       1.0231744         0.23           0.23
##  Benevento         170       0.6136785         0.00           0.60
##    Caserta         403       0.4366363         0.75           0.50
##     Napoli        2227       0.7219058         2.11           1.50
##    Salerno         633       0.5762335         1.77           1.69

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##             Bologna        3865        3.809312         1.13           1.66
##             Ferrara         805        2.328669         2.29           1.98
##        Forlì-Cesena        1446        3.664220         0.77           1.18
##              Modena        3449        4.889473         1.11           1.08
##               Parma        2909        6.441099         0.76           1.67
##            Piacenza        3460       12.049368         1.97           1.60
##             Ravenna         937        2.405920         0.32           0.58
##  Reggio nell'Emilia        4369        8.214089         0.39           1.19
##              Rimini        1852        5.462853         0.33           0.86

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Gorizia         143        1.025803         3.62           2.96
##  Pordenone         599        1.916598         0.50           0.68
##    Trieste        1125        4.797585         0.27           0.69
##      Udine         921        1.741709         0.66           0.55

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Frosinone         533       1.0897946         1.52           1.82
##     Latina         451       0.7840015         1.58           1.13
##      Rieti         281       1.8070391         0.00           0.12
##       Roma        4189       0.9647157         1.35           1.40
##    Viterbo         355       1.1197678         1.72           0.57

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##     Genova        3855        4.582848         1.66           1.89
##    Imperia        1156        5.405911         0.00           1.55
##  La Spezia         788        3.589062         1.42           2.07
##     Savona         960        3.477455         2.45           5.74

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                Bergamo       10788        9.678895         0.47           0.50
##                Brescia       12078        9.540631         0.62           0.90
##                   Como        2592        4.325739         1.65           2.05
##                Cremona        5641       15.715062         2.73           1.42
##                  Lecco        2093        6.203687         0.63           1.02
##                   Lodi        2751       11.950582         0.40           0.45
##                Mantova        2933        7.113890         0.69           0.81
##                 Milano       16520        5.082584         2.53           2.05
##  Monza e della Brianza        4211        4.818436         1.30           1.37
##                  Pavia        3705        6.787107         1.76           1.57
##                Sondrio         966        5.334217         0.63           1.02
##                 Varese        2251        2.527033         2.50           2.24

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Ancona        1760        3.734922         1.32           1.12
##    Ascoli Piceno         271        1.308048         0.00           0.00
##            Fermo         395        2.272727         1.02           1.21
##         Macerata         932        2.966471         1.08           0.95
##  Pesaro e Urbino        2347        6.539681         0.60           0.78

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##    province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Campobasso         213       0.9627641         0.47           1.78
##     Isernia          51       0.6044158         0.00           0.66

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##              province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Alessandria        2899        6.881344         2.98           1.75
##                  Asti        1212        5.646717         6.13           5.30
##                Biella         808        4.601760         2.67           2.61
##                 Cuneo        2125        3.619498         2.41           2.44
##                Novara        2028        5.495667         1.60           1.47
##                Torino       10610        4.695681         3.23           2.71
##  Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         945        5.967831         0.85           0.86
##              Vercelli         989        5.786637         0.51           0.86

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                   Bari        1160       0.9265220         1.93           2.57
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         338       0.8666422         0.90           0.30
##               Brindisi         505       1.2850690         1.00           3.31
##                 Foggia         896       1.4400908         3.23           2.92
##                  Lecce         452       0.5684576         0.00           0.67
##                Taranto         244       0.4230559         0.41           0.69

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##      province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Cagliari         226       0.5243157         3.67           2.15
##         Nuoro          74       0.3548310         0.00           1.87
##      Oristano          52       0.3297254         0.00           8.24
##       Sassari         798       1.6233667         0.00           0.38
##  Sud Sardegna          86       0.2452064         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Agrigento         132       0.3035390         0.00           0.00
##  Caltanissetta         138       0.5257984         0.00           0.00
##        Catania         851       0.7682572         5.32           3.93
##           Enna         377       2.2877879         0.00           1.08
##        Messina         513       0.8183437         3.22           2.17
##        Palermo         422       0.3369025         0.48           0.80
##         Ragusa          70       0.2181412         1.45           0.48
##       Siracusa         197       0.4934573         7.65           2.68
##        Trapani         135       0.3135947         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Arezzo         580        1.692670         2.29           1.91
##        Firenze        2704        2.673657         1.92           1.80
##       Grosseto         386        1.741649         0.78           0.61
##        Livorno         492        1.469394         0.20           0.83
##          Lucca        1215        3.132444         0.16           1.41
##  Massa-Carrara         956        4.905633         0.74           1.36
##           Pisa         811        1.935390         0.87           1.57
##        Pistoia         575        1.965993         1.23           1.25
##          Prato         473        1.835354         0.21           1.15
##          Siena         411        1.538191         0.98           0.99

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Bolzano / Bozen        2410        4.537085         0.67           1.20
##           Trento        3614        6.679012         0.67           1.75

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Perugia         977        1.488463         0.10           0.17
##     Terni         331        1.466984         0.91           0.61

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##                        province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1093        8.697659         0.46
##  three_day_rate
##            0.62

## [1] "2020-04-21"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Belluno         967        4.764720         6.97           5.01
##    Padova        3721        3.967340         0.76           0.80
##    Rovigo         369        1.570634        20.20           6.44
##   Treviso        2351        2.648101         1.12           0.73
##   Venezia        2191        2.567564         0.64           1.17
##    Verona        4070        4.392891         1.80           1.61
##   Vicenza        2390        2.771278         0.46           1.35

This page last updated: 22/4/2020